If a bitterly divided Liberal Party can’t unite on policies and candidates to win back mainstream voters, its chances at the 2025 state election are doomed.
In the wash-up of the federal Liberals’ wipe-out in Western Australia, senior party figure Michaelia Cash was keen to focus on a particular number.
She compared the Liberals’ 21 per cent primary vote in last year’s state election – when the party was reduced to just two seats in parliament’s lower house – to the almost 35 per cent primary it received in this month’s federal poll.
“So, the rebuilding process has well and truly started for the Western Australian Liberal Party,” Senator Cash said at her post-election media conference.
Nice try, senator.
Firstly, the Liberals’ primary this federal election was down almost 10 per cent on the 2019 result.
In the seat of Tangney alone, the swing was 12.5 per cent away from the losing sitting Liberal member Ben Morton.
And there was an electoral upheaval in the supposedly blue-ribbon stronghold seat of Curtin, with a 13.3 per cent swing against the Liberals. At the time of writing, Curtin was on track to be the fifth Liberal seat to fall to Labor or an Independent.
These numbers don’t lie, and the Liberals are not even close to rebuilding or reforming in any way, shape, or form.
Since the 2021 state election, at which the government of Mark McGowan annihilated the Liberals under Zak Kirkup, the conservatives have become even more divided between those who want change and those who resent any suggestion they have acted against the party’s best interests.
A damning review of the state election defeat, which was overseen by barrister Mark Trowell and former Liberal president Danielle Blain, has achieved nothing.
The embarrassing faction known as ‘the clan’ is still pulling most of the strings. When you delve into leaked transcripts of the clan’s insular and sycophantic WhatsApp group, you are reminded of the true extent of the Liberals’ war within.
“Honey would be bloody horrible,” messaged a Clan member when the now leader of the Liberal Party put his hand up for the seat of Cottesloe.
“Yes, Honey is on my ‘poo’ list major league,” replied another.
Powerbroker and clan member Peter Collier made it clear Dr Honey wasn’t wanted, but when the Cottesloe MP won pre-selection the clan’s kingpin, Mathias Cormann, messaged his team.
“A group of self-righteous, born to rule, silver spoons decided that they know what is best for our party,” he wrote.
These groups still despise one another, so what real hope does the Liberal Party have for success, let alone reform?
Always upbeat, Senator Cash tried to spin it at her media conference. “We accepted the recommendations of that review, and we are working towards now implementing them,” she said.
But in a recent newspaper opinion piece that pulled no punches, one of the authors of the review, Mr Trowell begged to differ.
“Not a single recommendation for reform has been implemented, which means the review report was utterly pointless,” the barrister wrote. “Of course, in the aftermath of such a resounding defeat, surviving Liberal Party MPs and party officials will respond with predictable clichés.”
He listed “we’ve hit rock bottom, the only way is up”, “committed to change” and “requires serious soul searching” on his list of clichés. All have been uttered by party operatives since the federal election loss.
Combining with the party’s structural weaknesses and lack of resources in WA was Scott Morrison’s poor judgment over the McGowan government’s border policy.
Supporting Clive Palmer’s border challenge, regardless of the federal government’s motivations, was a disaster. On that point, Senator Cash played it straight.
“The feedback that Ben Morton and I had given at the time – we did not support the challenge. We did not support siding with Clive Palmer, but the decision was made that we would,” she said.
In a recent online column (March 31), I said it would be a mistake not to expect the potency of WA Labor’s state election win to also crossover into the federal election. Being called cave dwellers by the prime minister would be met by revenge on this side of the country.
“Anyone who says Mark McGowan’s 14 per cent two-party preferred swing (much higher in individual seats) won’t have a residual effect when voters decide between Liberal and Labor federally is kidding themselves,” the column read. “WA is coloured red right now.”
That was something Senator Cash couldn’t ignore while moving around polling booths on federal election day.
“I had a number of people on polling booths who would come up to me and say, ‘I’m voting for Mark McGowan’,” Senator Cash said.
Work begins soon on the Liberals’ pre-selection process ahead of the 2025 state election. If the bitterly divided party doesn’t agree on policies and candidates to win back the mainstream, and present a clear direction for WA, it is once again doomed.
