Poll Saturday not too far away

FEW people realise that between Western Australia’s first upper house poll in 1894 and 1962, the State had separate general election dates, and even different years, for its two parliamentary chambers.

To further complicate matters, between 1890, the year WA gained self-government and held its first lower house poll, and the 13th parliament in 1927, North West and outback lower house electors cast their votes on different days to those voting in southern and metropolitan seats.

To demonstrate this curious state of affairs, consider the last election round prior to the outbreak of the Great War in August 1914.

Lower house MPs faced voters on October 3 1911 with their next poll on October 21 1914, while upper house MPs faced voters on May 14 1912 and again on May 16 1914, or three months before the outbreak of the conflict in Europe.

But the lower house’s October 3 1911 poll only involved southern voters, since those in the seats of Cue voted on October 11 1911, while those in Gascoyne voted on October 16, those in the Kimberley on October 18, the Pilbara on October 24, and in Roebourne on October 31.

Having a patchwork of lower house polling dates persisted until 1927, and from February 20 1965 both upper and lower house MPs faced voters on the same day.

It therefore took WA’s parliament three quarters of a century to institute a single statewide general election day.

This means that the 12 elections since February 1965 are the pertinent ones to consider in gaining insight into considerations confronting Premier Geoff Gallop and his master strategist, Jim McGinty, in Labor’s deliberations on when to call the 2005 poll.

Nine of those dozen conjoint contests were held in February.

Two of the remaining three were held in March, and the last – that in 1996 – was held on December 14, early in the summer of the year before an election needed to be called.

The man who broke with tradition by opting for a pre-Christmas contest was Dr Gallop’s predecessor, Richard Court.

He did this for three reasons.

Firstly, opinion polls during late 1996 showed the Coalition standing high.

Secondly, Labor had recently dumped its hapless leader and now master Labor strategist, Jim McGinty, in favour of the still (then) largely inexperienced Dr Gallop.

And lastly, Mr Court wanted to catch the media off-guard because he believed a drawn-out lead-up to a February or March 1997 election threatened his chances, since certain journalists he’d identified were likely to look for and highlight alleged splits within Liberal ranks.

Although many of today’s pundits, and the Colin Barnett-led conservative Opposition’s strategists, didn’t discount the possibility of Dr Gallop copying Mr Court’s ploy of a December poll, this was torpedoed by Mark Latham’s disastrous perfor-mance against Prime Minister John Howard on October 9 2004.

Moreover, Federal Labor performed abysmally in WA, attracting just 34.8 per cent of the statewide vote.

On top of that, WA Labor registered a series of bad opinion polling results after mid-2004, which meant the Gallop-McGinty duo promptly scuttled the pre-Christmas option.

Clearly Labor’s circumstances as last Christmas approached were markedly different to those facing Mr Court before December 1996.

But where does the duo now stand?

Clause VIII of the Constitution Acts Amendment Act (1899) requires that newly elected MPs be ready to take up their seats by Sunday May 22.

There are 19 Saturdays between now and May 22 2005, with the last three – May 7, 14 and 21 – out of bounds since it takes at least three weeks to count all votes and finalise a statewide election.

That leaves 16 Saturdays to consider.

Another three – January 15, 22 and 29 – are also disqualified since it’s now too late to call an election for them, leaving 13 of those 19 Saturdays.

February offers four Saturdays – 5, 12, 19 and 26 – with the last three distinct possibilities since schools, the venue of most polling booths, will have re-opened.

February 5 cannot now be called since, like January 15, 22 and 29, it’s too late to do so.

Furthermore, British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s wife, Cherie, a barrister and QC, will be in Perth lecturing on February 8, meaning it’s unlikely Dr Gallop would risk a February 5 poll he may lose.

Dr Gallop, who’ll no doubt be entertaining Mrs Blair, was groomsman at the Blairs’ wedding.

Now, consider the remaining three February Saturdays.

February 12 is the day of the annual concert at Leeuwin Estate.

Dr Gallop could easily opt for it, since the Liberals would be weakened in manning booths across metropolitan Perth with so many of their wealthier backers in Margaret River.

The same applies to February 19, which is the date of the Rottnest channel swim.

The reason February 19 is so favoured is because Mr McGinty’s never-enacted fixed-term election legislation proposed every fourth February’s third Saturday as WA’s fixed general election day.

And February 26, like February 19, is a possibility.

If one of February’s latter three Saturdays aren’t opted for, the premier and attorney-general are left with nine others, four in March (5, 12, 19 and 26 and four in April (2, 9, 16 and 23).

April 30, is most unlikely since it’s too close to May 22, when newly elected MPs must be in place.

March 5 is over a long weekend and so unlikely to be chosen, leaving seven possible Saturdays.

March 12, like February 12, 19 and 26, is a possibility.

However, the next three Saturdays – March 19, 26 and April 2 – cannot be nominated since elections aren’t permitted on Easter Saturday (March 26 this year) or on a preceding or succeeding Saturday.

That still leaves the final three dates – April 9, 16 and 23 – which although possibilities are unlikely since they fall during school holidays.

Of the 19 remaining Saturdays Dr Gallop and Mr McGinty are therefore effectively left with just four – February 12, 19 and 26, and March 12.

If Gallop-led Labor continues registering dismal polling results, March 12 must be favoured since it’s further off. It’s worth remembering that the single-term Tonkin Labor Government held off calling the election until March 30 1974.

As far as the three February options are concerned it matters little which is chosen, so Mr McGinty may as well press for February 19, if for no other reason than to be consistent with his earlier fixed-term election proposal.

What’s a week or two if your are destined to be dumped.

It’s therefore possible that February 19 will be general election day with March 12 an outside chance, depending on what Labor’s private polling shows.

Although there’s nothing blocking Labor from going for one of the three school holiday Saturdays of April 9, 16 and 23, if Dr Gallop did that he’d lay himself open to the charge that he’s scared to face electors, which would make him look fearful and weak.