The Morrison government will be keenly watching the new NSW premier’s bold move to open the nation’s biggest economy.
As Western Australia meanders towards its target vaccination rate of at least 80 per cent double dose, the eyes of the nation should be on New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet and his bold move to reopen his state’s economy.
The reason? If his decision succeeds it will become a pacesetter for the rest of the nation.
The pressure on other states, including WA, to also loosen up will build.
It will also give the re-election prospects of Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his coalition government a boost – and at the right time, with strong speculation Australia will go the polls in March, before the Easter break.
If the Perrottet initiative fails, and it’s not without risk, it will certainly be a setback for his state – Australia’s most populous, with the biggest economy.
There would obviously be a national impact as well.
It would also deprive Mr Morrison of an example to hold up to the other leaders, including WA premier Mark McGowan, to do more on the vaccination front and not just wait until an outbreak to give people a sense of urgency to be vaccinated.
WA has luxuriated in the fact that COVID-19 rates have been minimal, thanks to the hard national and international borders.
Life for most has been pretty much close to normal. But we can only go on patting ourselves on the back – in the afterglow of the AFL grand final – for so long.
If it had not been for the ability of the resources sector to continue operating at close to full capacity, the local story would be vastly different.
Geography has helped too, with effectively only two significant road entry points into the state.
So, life goes on.
The resources sector provides the lifeblood, and the 150,000-strong state public sector workforce has hardly missed a beat, apart from smaller than normal annual pay increases.
It’s a different story in the bulk of the private sector. Initially propped up by generous JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs, which everyone knew could not go on forever, it’s becoming harder as the support is wound back.
Some sectors are doing it tougher than others.
The tertiary education business model is in disarray due to the collapse of the full fee-paying foreign students program. All universities have had, or are facing, drastic staff cuts.
Intrastate tourism has been strong – handicapped only by the inability to recruit suitable staff, especially in regional areas – but the interstate and overseas sectors have suffered king hits.
The arts, which have traditionally done well thanks to sponsorship and the generally strong economy, are virtually on life support.
What is now desperately needed, especially at the state level, is serious debate on how to return to normal as quickly, and safely, as possible. And the fewer diversions the better.
Much has been made of Mr Perrottet’s criticism of the GST distribution and the 70 per cent floor in WA’s share introduced when Mr Morrison was treasurer.
That enabled Mr McGowan to fire back some colourful jibes before the prime minister said there would be no change. No surprise there.
Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce did not help by likening WA to a “hermit kingdom” and North Korea.
How juvenile can you get when serious issues, including many people’s livelihoods and their small businesses, are at stake?
Fortunately, there are signs of belated action on the local front, with a directive that all WA health workers would need to be fully vaccinated by December 1.
The questions must be asked: why has it taken this long? Why didn’t the government move months ago? Complacency?
Mr McGowan led his government to an extraordinary state election victory in March. His success in keeping the virus at bay was a massive factor.
But this approach can’t continue forever.
The temptation for the Labor governments of WA, Queensland and Victoria will be to put political interests ahead of the national interest as the federal election gets closer, thwart Mr Morrison at every move and make his federal government look impotent.
That could lead to Labor leader Anthony Albanese becoming the next prime minister.
But at what cost to the nation.
If Mr Perrottet’s strategy succeeds in NSW, however, that introduces a new and important dynamic.
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