Perth’s population is set to double over the next 40 years, and a lot needs to happen to accommodate that growth.
Perth’s population is set to double over the next 40 years, and a lot needs to happen to accommodate that growth.
A DOUBLING of Perth’s population to 3.5 million people poses some serious challenges for the state government, with progressive planning key to easing what could be a painful growth period, according to some of the city’s urban planning experts.
Australian Bureau of Statistics projections estimate Perth’s population will more than double from the current 1.7 million by the year 2050.
Planning and delivering the required transport infrastructure, water and power supplies, ensuring control over environmental impact, and planning for expansion of the city both upwards and outwards all take time.
Not to mention the cultural adaptation that will be required; after all, the bulk of the growth in population is expected to come from international migration (see Broad vision beyond political battleground).
One of the biggest challenges in accommodating an extra 1.8 million people will be providing the necessary infrastructure.
Demographer Bernard Salt suggests growing the capacity of infrastructure isn’t as simple as building some extra freeway lanes.
“There are never enough funds for infrastructure. It will be a catch-up for the next 30 or 40 years and that has always been the case; it is just the way it is,” Mr Salt said.
“It is a question of how far behind population growth infrastructure is delivered.”
Former GHD economics and policy manager, and interim director of the newly formed International Mining for Development Centre, Ian Satchwell, said progressive thinking was critical when it came to infrastructure planning.
“A lot of the discussion about the future of Perth has been informed by people with experience of the past. Because the future is going to be very, very different, we need to frame it with an open mind,” Mr Satchwell told WA Business News.
The opportunity to leave a lasting legacy in infrastructure as a result of the unprecedented growth currently taking place in WA is another factor that should motivate government, according to Mr Satchwell.
The state government has set out a Directions 2031 plan for housing development in the central metropolitan area. The Office of Energy’s strategic directions paper for the same time frame is on its way, and the Water Corporation is working on a 10-year plan to develop new sources to cope with demand.
At a recent WA Business News event, Premier Colin Barnett spoke fervently about the current decade as a foundation for the future of the state and its capital city.
“When this decade is finished this state will have built its productive capacity for the next 50 years. This is the decade in which that capacity is being built and you will get continuing growth, but not of this scale,” Mr Barnett said.
According to the premier, Perth is currently going through a period of change similar to those of the early 1900s gold rush and 1960s iron ore boom.
He said the sinking of the railway in Perth and the broader Perth City Link development, alongside the Waterfront and Riverside developments, would be game changers for what had been a relatively dormant city.
Transport
Transport will be one of the major challenges, with public transport to play a key role in linking what will become sub-regional commercial centres – areas such as Yanchep, Armadale and further expansion of the Peel region.
During the past 10 years, public transport usage in Perth has increased by 67 per cent, three times the rate of population growth over the same period, and the state government estimates usage will double over the next two decades.
If that is anything to go by, demand for services by 2050 is likely to be up 160 per cent on current levels.
Town of Vincent Mayor and former Labor government planning and infrastructure minister, Alannah MacTiernan, said progressive infrastructure plans needed progressive action and that incremental additions to the public transport network were crucial.
“I don’t think there is enough will to invest. In their first term of government there is going to be no extension (of the railway line) and in our (Labor government) first term we got the extension north to Clarkson; then we did the Thornlie line and completed the Mandurah line,” she said.
“You have got to keep growing the public transport system; if the city is going to grow it can’t be stop start. There should be projects being rolled out continuously.”
That said, the Barnett government is currently extending the Joondalup train line to Butler.
The state government’s ‘Public Transport for Perth in 2031’ study, released earlier this year, estimates that $2.9 billion will be needed over the next 21 years to build the infrastructure required, with the total cost for fleet expansion alone to be $1.2 billion.
That plan includes extending the northern rail line to Yanchep and developing a light rail system. The government originally suggested the line would be focused on servicing the northern suburbs and would run to Mirrabooka, but the 2031 plan says the significant capacity and fleet needs for that line could be fully harnessed by extending the route through the city to Curtin University and University of Western Australia at either extremity – a system likened to the knowledge arc advocated by the Committee for Perth, among others.
State architect and Cox Howlett & Bailey Woodland director Steve Woodland describes that arc as “bringing together the ingredients of education, culture, health and village life with our traditional CBD of retail, entertainment and work”.
Power
In the energy sector, Western Power, the Independent Market Operator and Synergy have made estimations of required growth in infrastructure and generation.
Synergy suggests that about 6,000 megawatts of new generation capacity, on top of the existing 5,000 megawatts in the South West Interconnected System covering Perth, will be needed over the next 20 years – an extension valued at $12 billion in generation assets alone.
That would cater for what Western Power expects to be a 90 per cent increase in peak demand on the SWIS over that timeframe.
Gas is likely to play a large role in power generation, as will other conventional power sources such as coal.
With the renewable energy target and the carbon tax introduced by the federal government, renewable energy sources are likely to play a role as well, and WA is often touted as the perfect place to develop all five sources – solar, wind, wave, biomass and geothermal.
Despite the public’s aversion to nuclear power, Mr Salt suggests nuclear energy could become a more attractive option with time.
“Whether it is new coal-fired power stations, alternative renewables and I also suspect over the next 40 years Australia will be confronted with the nuclear option in order to provide base load power,” he said.
“It is not palatable now, in this decade, but it may well be palatable by the end of the 2020s when we are facing power blackouts.”
Water
Mr Salt is equally broadminded when it comes to assessing sources to cater for Perth’s increasing demand for water.
In its 2009 Water Forever report, the Water Corporation suggested that a population of 2.8 million people would require 470 gigalitres.
By those standards, a population of 3.5 million in 2050 would demand 96 per cent more water than the current rate of demand (300 gigalitres).
The Water Corporation is focused on developing non-climate dependent sources, according to its 10-year plan.
The plan includes a move towards more water recycling, access to deeper aquifers, and the development of desalination plants such as the Southern Seawater Desalination Plant.
The state government recently committed to expanding the Binningup plant, with $450 million of works in order to provide 100 billion litres of drinking water a year to the Integrated Water Supply Scheme.
“I can’t imagine that Perth could go to three million (people) without another dam and without a resolution to water issues,” Mr Salt said, pointing to options such as pipelines that would create a comprehensive water strategy.