Market Maker

Good Morning, happy Friday…..It has been a good week for us here @ PEAK and today, we move to our new PEAK Headquarters @ Level 39, 55 Collins Street. We have a beautiful boardroom overlooking the MCG, so get set for a PEAK Wine & Cheese night, over coming weeks….. Stay tuned… Tonight, we have the “all important” US payroll figures…………… So if the figures are better than expected, do we expect Janet Yellen to raise interest rates next month? You bet!

Good Morning, another early start this morning as we jump on a conference call to the US to discuss the next PEAK OPPORTUNITY. After a great 20% debut yesterday for SWIFT, we are building great momentum… and this one is exciting…. Oil has surged about 85 percent since touching a 12-year low in February on signs the global surplus is easing. However, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to reach an agreement limiting production at this week’s meeting in Vienna, as the group sticks with Saudi Arabia’s strategy of squeezing out rivals…. So where is oil heading?

Good Morning, “a pinch and a punch”, yes it’s the 1st of the month and winter is here…. An eventful trading session we had in China yesterday, with the index plunging 10% in a matter of seconds, then rebounding back up…We did talk about short positions in the Chinese market being the highest for the past 12 months, but we certainly didn’t expect a “10% flash crash”…… Warning signs for June?

Good Morning, a fairly “uneventful” night last night with both US and UK markets closed for public holidays…. Trading volumes have been extremely low (lowest since 2009) and last night, didn’t help with the lack of direction.Today is the last day of May and all things considered, we’ve held up extremely well…… “Sell in May and go away”…. It hasn’t been as bad as we thought…. But what’s in store for June?

Good Morning, we’re a little tired this morning after a packed day yesterday in Perth, but hey, market was up last night (Dow + 145 points), so we should have another good day today….. We had a great day yesterday here in Oz, with the XJO rallying + 75 points, as banks rallied and commodities provided strong support… We feel that if the RBA cuts interest rates again next week, markets will rally as investors seek higher yields…..

There is growing speculation that Australian banks are vulnerable…. Growing bad and doubtful debts, weak net interest margins and a property market that looks “shaky” is putting pressure on banking stocks. Global hedge funds are benefiting from this trade by increasing their net-short positions by over 18x, the highest on record… yes, even greater than the GFC… so do we agree with them? In part, yes…. We feel that bank cash earnings will remain “flat” to “negative” over the next 6-12 months and we are concerned about banks’ exposures to the small-cap junior mining and oil companies…. We also feel that banks will not be able to pay their dividends, driving share-prices lower… red alert?

Good Morning,  It appears that global markets are looking for clear direction….. And aren’t getting it… Last week, markets remained “fragile”, as talks of a US interest hike in June put some fear on whether global growth will remain resilient… Given that US earnings are now out of the way, the market is closely monitoring macro-economic data, which largely, has been strong…. However, the stronger the data, the quicker the market will price in an interest rate rise in June…

Good morning. Trust that you had a nice weekend are raring to go for another busy week on markets… now that US earnings are out of the way, the key question will be what are the main catalysts that will drive markets?Global central banks have little to no “ammunition”, as both fiscal and monetary policies are ineffective…. The RBA may cut interest rates again next month but as AUS inflation is extremely low, cutting rates do not have a strong bearing on markets….. Our focus this morning is on a special opportunity, YPB… Make sure to listen to the podcast, as it is an interesting story…

Good Morning, an early start this morning as we head into the Sky News studios to talk global markets. For those wanting to tune in, we’re on at 8:15am. So what happened last night? Global stocks fell (Dow Jones -190 points), as Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco’s John Williams said two rate increases this year may be warranted.  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said a hike may come soon.  Overall, strong US data is supporting this case… But is strong data having a negative bearing on equities?....

Good Morning, US Stocks rallied last night (Dow + 175 points), as crude oil rallied on the back of stronger retail sales (released Friday), while Apple finally broke through its recent downtrend, following Warren Buffet’s move to potentially buy the stock… Every time Buffet opens his mouth, he impacts the market in some shape or form.… incredible…  However, analysts believe that the rally is “short-lived” as US earnings are now out of the way, paving way for focus to turn to macro-data, including whether central banks will continue to stimulate the economy…  Housing data released last night showed that the US housing market, is holding up well… but what about AUS?

Good Morning, trust that you had a nice weekend and are looking forward to another busy week on markets… So what can we expect this week? Aussie gold stocks are “flying” as the AUD continues to fall and gold is well supported, following weak macro data… where to from here? 

Good Morning,  It looks like the storm clouds are coming… again… US stocks fell for the first time in four days (Dow -217 points), reversing much of Tuesday's rally as disappointing results from Macy's Inc. to Walt Disney Co. heightened concern that American consumers remain hesitant to boost spending. The misses from Disney and Macy's sent consumer discretionary shares tumbling the most in three months as investors await Friday's government report on retail sales. What is interesting is that the latest rally in equities has been on near all-time-low trading volumes….Implications?

Good Morning, no morning or afternoon note yesterday as we were on the road, but this is what we like to wake up to!Dow +222 points, Oil +3%, SPI + 29 points…. Go downstairs and grab your morning coffee, we should have a great day today… So BHP has come out stating that they will grow by over seventy percent without a commodities rally…. How are they going to do that? 

Good Morning, trust that you had a nice weekend a, spent some quality time with family & friends and a great Mother’s Day…“Dear Malcolm, yesterday wasn’t all about you…. It was about our hard-working mothers, who give back so much to their families and the economy, itself… Couldn’t you have just waited for this morning to announce a 2 July Election?

Good Morning, today is the silver donut’s day… No, we’re not talking about Homer Simpson, we are talking about Macquarie Bank.. who releases their FY results. Unlike the Big 4 Banks, Macquarie’s earnings are largely based on deal origination, equity capital markets (ECM) and their fixed income and funds management businesses. Macquarie has done exceptionally well in diversifying their income streams in mortgage broking via Yellow Brick Roads (YBR), its investment in shopping centres and airports…

Good Morning, happy Thursday… Yes, it’s not quite Friday, but hey, we’re getting there… Last night, I went out for dinner with the management ofWeebit Nano (vending into RAD), an Israeli tech company “disrupting” Flash memory. Did you know that over 2% of America’s total energy usage is being used by data centres? Photos, videos, Instagram, emails…. The “cloud” is not somewhere in space…

Good Morning, an early start this morning as we head into Sky News to talk interest rate cuts, discuss impacts of the federal budget and last night’s movements… for those wanting to watch, tune in to Sky @ 8:15am.  Super Tuesday, you certainly lived up to expectations! Glen, thank you for listening…. It has taken you around 2 months to get off the couch and yes, the popcorn is nice and salty, but I do appreciate your input… it’s all about the budget this morning and ANZ, you’re the only bank to not pass yesterday’s interest rates cut in full… lift your game…

Good Morning, we have a “Super” Tuesday today… No… we’re not talking about the US election.. What is happening? At 2:30pm AEST, we hope that the RBA cuts interest rates to 1.75%.... then the much awaited, federal budget… will the new treasurer cut taxes? This is what we want to see… the question: how do we fund it?

Good Morning, yes… It is Monday morning…. and guess what? It’s May… “Sell in May and go away?”… will this be relevant in 2016? Maybe… Global markets appear to be fragile, with US earnings providing to be “some-what” positive (although coming off a very low EPS expectations). On Friday,the Bank of Japan sat still and didn’t unleash any further stimulus… so what can we expect from AUS bank earnings today? WBC comes out first… how big will the SGH write-down be? Will net interest margins fall? Cash earnings remain flat… all likely..

Good Morning,Happy Friday…Yes, another short-fuelled week and the weekend is here, once again…

At an ASX meeting on 13 April 2016 the ASX raised the prospect of a number of potential changes to the Listing Rules.  The changes are intended to apply from 1 July 2016.  The changes may be subject to a brief consultation period. 

“The S&P 500 is at what I consider to be a key resistance area in that 2,090 range, so it’s going to take some good news to push through that,” said Alan Gayle, a senior strategist at Atlanta-based RidgeWorth Investments, which has about $37 billion in assets.

Good morning. It's been a great long weekend but it is now time to get back to business. Historically, May hasn't been a great month in equities and we're cautious, given the rally in global equities. the "Fear" and "Greed" index is now hovering around 75 and it appears the consumer confidence is on the rise... but is the rally losing steam? 

Good Morning, happy Friday! It’s been a great week for global markets, driven by better than expected earnings and a pick-up in commodities…TheXJO is now above 5,300…. A level that it hasn’t witnessed for nearly six months.Iron ore closed up 8% last night to over $70/tonne… wow…. Remember that it was only a few months ago, when iron ore was trading near $38/tonne…

So what happened last night? US stocks closed higher (Dow Jones +42 points), following weaker US oil production, sending Crude to the highest level in over 4 months…This is good news, as a rising oil price, is usually strongly positively correlated with economic growth…….

Good morning. Global markets rallied last night as the USD continues to get “crunched” on the back of stronger corporate earnings and better-than-expected Chinese data. To add “fuel to the fire”, analysts are pushing back their interest rate revisions and we don’t see interest rates rising in the US or the rest of the world for the next six months…. Big call? Sure…….

Good Morning, a “fight back” in crude oil and a great report from Walt Disney, saw the Dow Jones close +106 points. So we should have a good day, right?  More than 90 companies are scheduled to report results this week, including Goldman Sachs Group, Starbucks and American Express. Analysts are projecting a 9.5 per cent decline in first-quarter profit, compared with forecasts for almost flat growth at the start of the year. .. 

The greed index is showing that at 70, investors are starting to feeling “good” about the prospects of the economy… should they be?Retail sales were poor last month (-0.3%), unemployment is still high at 5.7% and the government may even call an early election? Where is theCertainty? A big week ahead in US earnings will provide clarity…

Good Morning, happy Friday…. This week has gone fast, right? We have seen crude oil break through $40/barrel (the DOHA meeting this weekend is strongly in focus on whether Russia and Saudi Arabia will cut production)…If they cut production, we see upside to $60/barrel as demand starts to pickup on the back of weaker inventories.  So this weekend’s meeting is crucial…

Good morning, global stocks rallied as JP Morgan “smashed” expectations… Citigroup rallied more than 6%.... Dow Jones +187 points… here we go….. "While JPMorgan had a tough quarter, they still beat estimates. If earnings come in better than expected - with expectations so low - if we have even a decent beat, you may see us break out." Banks have been heavily shorted over the past several months, however, it appears that a lot of the bad news is largely factored in and we expect some buying momentum to build……..

Good Morning, global stocks closed higher (Dow Jones +165 points), following better than expected US earnings and crude oil above $42/barrel on “speculation” that Saudi Arabia and Russia reached a consensus on an oil freeze during talks on Tuesday. Energy producers led the rally…. In Oz, Bellamy’s, Blackmores, A2 Milk & Bega Cheese are in “crisis talks” with Chinese authorities on a suggested 11.9% tax on products bought on ecommerce websites… Here we go….

Good Morning, so… the entire Geelong city council will be “kicked out” today out of parliament for “failure to deliver”… If you turned up to work every morning with purple hair and sunglasses, your boss may not be too happy, right? Image is important and you certainly don’t see an ASX listed director coming to work looking like this… Maybe they should, boosting their stock prices for once?